Flying

What could be more fun than sitting on a plane for three hours with a suddenly-sick toddler on your lap?

Sitting next to a DNC staffer. 

Her calm discussing Rubio’s polling numbers, the rise of the Tea Parties, and the dismal polling for the Obami in the wake of the passage of Obamacare impressed me.  She was fully convinced (deulsional?) that Democrats would be able to hold the fort in the House and Senate in the midterms because she thought the Republicans were “so divided” that we’d tear ourselves apart from the inside out. 

Sounds more like the Blue Dogs.

She spoke of the DNC’s “better message” (I guess that means “Socialism: it’s good for what ails you!”) and sang the praises of Dean’s 50-state strategy that dramatically revitalized the party and facilitated Obama’s election.

And I don’t claim to have my finger on the pulse of the American public any better than the next mom, but I sure as heck think I have a better idea of what average people not infatuated with Obama think.

I think they’re ready to vote.

I can’t wait for November.  And it looks like there are more out there like me than her.  Via The Weekly Standard, How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?

So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a “V”-shaped recovery and President Obama’s job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats

Consider that Democrats typically lead in the generic ballot, even if they do not gain control of Congress. In 2004, for example, Democrats led Republicans in 63 out of 72 generic ballot tests taken that year. Yet Republicans picked up a handful of seats in 2004 and won the popular vote by three points.

This year, five different polling companies have put Republicans in the lead for the generic ballot in the last two weeks alone – one reason why Michael Barone calls this the worst polling environment for Democrats “during my 50 years of following politics closely.” The RCP Average has Republicans leading Democrats by 2.8 points on the generic ballot test. That should equate roughly to a 225-seat Republican majority (Republicans won the national vote by 5 points in 1994), which would almost represent a 50-seat pickup.

But many of these polls survey registered voters. Polling among likely voters, such as Rasmussen Reports, shows Republicans up by about 8-10 points, which would probably represent a seventy-seat pickup.

Read the rest.  More on the DNC staffer to come once pjToddler and I arrive home safely.

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6 Responses

  1. […] to the Democrats Posted on August 19, 2010 by pjMom I wonder if the charmingly obnoxious DNC staffer I had the privilege to meet was trapped next to on a three-hour flight knew then her winning […]

  2. […] of crazy.  Fits.  I would love to bump into the DNC staffer with whom I had to share a three-hour flight.  I’m sure she’d point to the Nevada race […]

  3. I don’t think I could have spent all that time talking to her. I think I would have vomitted. But hey, you got a great blog entry out of it. 😉

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