It doesn’t take an expert


Alternate headline: Obama makes like Charlie Sheen to win in ’12!

Allahpundit headlined this yesterday:

Elections expert who’s called every presidential race since ’84: Obama will win.

“Even if I am being conservative,” Allan Lichtman says, “I cannot see how Obama will lose.”

Really? The headline at US News & World Report does even more to assuage liberal hand-wringing over Obama’s polling numbers: Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012.

Allahpundit sums Lichtman’s “keys” to the race:

He’s got The One winning on nine of 13 counts:

1. No contested primary
2. Incumbency
3. No third-party candidate
4. Major domestic-policy changes in his first term
5. No social unrest
6. No major scandals
7. No major foreign-policy failures
8. Major foreign-policy achievements in his first term (killing Bin Laden)
9. Little charisma by his likely opponent

The GOP wins three categories:

1. The incumbent’s party lost seats in the last House election
2. The long-term economy looks poor
3. Little charisma by the incumbent

True, Obama won’t have a contested primary. I’m sure the White House repeats the mantra that over a quarter of Democrat voters want someone else on the ticket doesn’t really matter. It’s uncontested, y’all.

As for #4 and 5, I laughed upon reading it. Sure, Obama has “major domestic-policy changes in his first term.” So unpopular, in fact, that its popularity has hit new lows! Sounds like Obama himself, no? Winning combo, hitting new lows.

No social unrest? Really? Tea Party. Protests on the Mall. Protests across the country. Obama should consider himself lucky that the people most aggrieved by his disastrous administration are the responsible ones.

No major scandal. I can hardly contain my laughter at this point. Fast and Furious is a major scandal, one that should bring the Attorney General to his knees if not the President himself. But when your BFFs in the media plug their collective ears and sing tra-la-la-la to pretend all’s well, then it hasn’t become the explosive issue (no pun intended) that it should be. Lichtman calls the administration “squeaky clean.” Sure, if you wish hard enough.

No major foreign policy failures. ROTFLMAO. Reset button. Blame America. Pulling out of the missile defense shield in Europe. Libya. Um, what was that again? Oh, yeah, no major foreign policy failures. Lichtman argues that failure needs to be on par with Bay of Pigs. After three years of across-the-board embarassment, voters are tired of the blame America first tour.

Major foreign policy achievement. In case anyone’s forgotten, Obama didn’t receive much of a bounce in the wake of bin Laden’s demise at the hands of Navy SEALs. Maybe because of the administration blunders: revealing what Special Operations forces were behind the raid, burying the body at sea with Muslim prayers, etc etc.

Little charisma for the GOP opponent. Boy, they’re prayin’ for Romney, no? I’ll give poor Barry O the benefit of the doubt given the GOP ability to secure defeat in the least likely of circumstances.

So in my column, I have #4-7 going to the GOP and tossing BO the bone on #1,8 and 9.

New score: Obama 5, GOP 7. 

Allahpundit comments:

In which case, how can Lichtman seriously say, “I don’t see how Obama can lose”? Especially since, surreally, he’s counting the stimulus, which the public reviles, and ObamaCare, about which the public is deeply suspicious, as a point in Obama’s favor because they are, after all, major “changes” to American domestic policy. By that standard, even the dumbest, most hated piece of legislation should be treated as an asset to a presidential campaign so long as it’s significant enough to constitute “major change.” If you flip that Key to the GOP, then you’ve got six for the Republicans — enough to take the White House by Lichtman’s own metrics.



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