The unlucky 7

States, that is, that election wiz Larry Sabato says will decide the ’12 election:

Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That’s why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).

What happened to Missouri as a bellwether?

Pity those souls in the unlucky 7. They’ll contend with even more craptastic commercials than the population as a whole.

I’m surprised Sabato counts Wisconsin in the “D” column given the last two years of angst there. Nevada has the highest rate of unemployment and one of the worst housing markets (chicken or the egg?) Most there remember how Obama had a hand in destroying the convention trade in Vegas. Unions are strong, but people are out of work. So how much influence can the unions have?

Karl at Hot Air adds:

However, at Pres. Obama’s Chicago campaign HQ, the following maps hang on the wall: Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Florida, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Vermont. Toss out Texas and Vermont as “50-state campaign” spin and you have a fairly good idea of the incumbent’s list. Obama HQ has a fair amount of overlap with Sabato, although the inclusion of the Carolinas and Pennsylvania (and the exclusion of Virginia) may be telling.

Perhaps more intriguing is the Republican National Committee’s new radio campaign, which is airing in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan. This list leans more heavily on the Great Lakes region than either Sabato or Obama do. Although Ohio has been key for Republicans at the presidential level for several cycles, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan have not turned red at that level in quite some time.  

I would add South Carolina in Obama’s HQ list as another toss to the “50-state” spin. Ain’t no way. Georgia, too. Apparently, the Obami are comfortable leaving Wisconsin off the list. Virginia, too. Both are telling.



4 Responses

  1. Frankly right now i believe Obama is headed for a landslide loss. Battleground states may be a relative term. It could be that under these circumstances california may be a battleground state.

    • That would be fantastic! I am pessimistic but you never know. I know there are a lot of very angry Republicans here who may very well get involved in campaigns and voter registration like never before.

  2. Interesting that he has a map of Texas on the wall. Is that because it’s such a huge state they still have to cover it even though it’s always Red or because they are predicting their opponent (Perry) will be from there?

    I would love to say my state (California) is in this list but alas… too many stupid people. Yowza.

  3. I would say that leaving Virginia off the list has to do with the fact that our state elections in two months is expected to give the senate back to the GOP. Which will give them the trifecta as we have the house and governors mansion already.

    The economy here is ok, unemployment is below the national average, our housing market is seeing the only growth in the country, and they just announced a budget surplus after years of deficit under the previous democratic governors.

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