States, that is, that election wiz Larry Sabato says will decide the ’12 election:
Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That’s why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).
What happened to Missouri as a bellwether?
Pity those souls in the unlucky 7. They’ll contend with even more craptastic commercials than the population as a whole.
I’m surprised Sabato counts Wisconsin in the “D” column given the last two years of angst there. Nevada has the highest rate of unemployment and one of the worst housing markets (chicken or the egg?) Most there remember how Obama had a hand in destroying the convention trade in Vegas. Unions are strong, but people are out of work. So how much influence can the unions have?
Karl at Hot Air adds:
However, at Pres. Obama’s Chicago campaign HQ, the following maps hang on the wall: Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Florida, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Vermont. Toss out Texas and Vermont as “50-state campaign” spin and you have a fairly good idea of the incumbent’s list. Obama HQ has a fair amount of overlap with Sabato, although the inclusion of the Carolinas and Pennsylvania (and the exclusion of Virginia) may be telling.
Perhaps more intriguing is the Republican National Committee’s new radio campaign, which is airing in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan. This list leans more heavily on the Great Lakes region than either Sabato or Obama do. Although Ohio has been key for Republicans at the presidential level for several cycles, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan have not turned red at that level in quite some time.
I would add South Carolina in Obama’s HQ list as another toss to the “50-state” spin. Ain’t no way. Georgia, too. Apparently, the Obami are comfortable leaving Wisconsin off the list. Virginia, too. Both are telling.